NERC Predicts Lights Out in California

Despite California sunshine, this West Coast state may have to suffer through as many as 260 hours of blackouts this summer, predicts the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) in a recent report.


Despite California sunshine, this West Coast state may have to suffer through as many as 260 hours of blackouts this summer, predicts the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) in a recent report.

"California electricity users will experience rotating blackouts, much more so than last summer or this winter," stated Michehl R. Gent, NERC's president and CEO.

The Princeton, N.J.-based association also projects that California could face shortfalls of 4,500 to 5,500 megawatts during peak-demand periods each month this summer.

While California's independent system operator, the organization that oversees the electrical grid, is not anticipating quite as bleak an outlook, the agency has warned that Californians may have to deal with the risk of blackouts for as many as 34 days this summer.

On the other end of the spectrum, Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Cambridge, Mass., predicted only 20 hours of summer blackouts in a report released earlier this year, but NERC claims that new generation will fall short of expectations.

"Since new generation requires a shakedown period during initial start-up, it is unlikely that all of the new generation will be on schedule and 100-percent available," says NERC's report—the 2001 Summer Assessment .

Responding to NERC's forecast, a spokesman for Governor Gray Davis' office stated that the assessment is overly pessimistic.

"We are preparing for the worst and hoping for the best," spokesperson Steve Maviglio, told the L.A. Times, stating that NERC has underestimated the potential of importing electricity from the Northwest.

However, the NERC's report predicts that drought conditions in the Northwest could limit the region's ability to share its hydroelectric resources.

"We expect that utilities in the Pacific Northwest will be able to serve all of their firm demands this summer, but they will not have electricity available to export to California and elsewhere," said Gent.

The report, available at , also warns that New England, New York City and Texas may also be vulnerable to electrical shortages this summer.

Consulting-Specifying Engineer's Product of the Year (POY) contest is the premier award for new products in the HVAC, fire, electrical, and...
Consulting-Specifying Engineer magazine is dedicated to encouraging and recognizing the most talented young individuals...
The MEP Giants program lists the top mechanical, electrical, plumbing, and fire protection engineering firms in the United States.
How to use IPD; 2017 Commissioning Giants; CFDs and harmonic mitigation; Eight steps to determine plumbing system requirements
2017 MEP Giants; Mergers and acquisitions report; ASHRAE 62.1; LEED v4 updates and tips; Understanding overcurrent protection
Integrating electrical and HVAC for energy efficiency; Mixed-use buildings; ASHRAE 90.4; Wireless fire alarms assessment and challenges
Power system design for high-performance buildings; mitigating arc flash hazards
Transformers; Electrical system design; Selecting and sizing transformers; Grounded and ungrounded system design, Paralleling generator systems
Commissioning electrical systems; Designing emergency and standby generator systems; VFDs in high-performance buildings
As brand protection manager for Eaton’s Electrical Sector, Tom Grace oversees counterfeit awareness...
Amara Rozgus is chief editor and content manager of Consulting-Specifier Engineer magazine.
IEEE power industry experts bring their combined experience in the electrical power industry...
Michael Heinsdorf, P.E., LEED AP, CDT is an Engineering Specification Writer at ARCOM MasterSpec.
Automation Engineer; Wood Group
System Integrator; Cross Integrated Systems Group
Fire & Life Safety Engineer; Technip USA Inc.
This course focuses on climate analysis, appropriateness of cooling system selection, and combining cooling systems.
This course will help identify and reveal electrical hazards and identify the solutions to implementing and maintaining a safe work environment.
This course explains how maintaining power and communication systems through emergency power-generation systems is critical.
click me