Global lamp market report
IMS Research (acquired by IHS, Inc.) has released its global lighting report “The World Market for Lamps & Luminaires in General Lighting.” The report offers the most detailed view of the global lamp market by technology, shape and wattage, providing readers with an unparalleled view into regional and technological dynamics that are affecting this $27 billion market.
Prior to the advent of LED lamps, the market was relatively unchanged for decades. While the introduction of CFLs as the energy efficient A-lamp of choice in the early 90s did lead to certain shifts within the market, the negative perception of the public towards their “white” light and quality control issues, didn’t allow them to strip incandescent lamps from their perch as the #1 lighting technology. Today, in the United States, CFL lamps only make up approximately 20% of the residential installed base.
IMS Research Senior Analyst Philip Smallwood states that “LEDs have changed the lamp world for good. The apparent global effort (see chart below) to phase out most incandescent A-lamps by either banning them or introducing minimal energy efficient standards is opening up the market in a way that would not have been possible in the past.”
The effect that the mass adoption of LED lamps will have on the market is twofold:
1) As revenue, it will increase. Lamp market value is expected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% from 2011 through 2015. This is due to the extreme differences of LED lamp prices vs. incumbent technologies. For example, in the United Stated, a 60W A-lamp incandescent lamp will have an approximate retail price of $0.50 while its LED replacement lamp will have a retail price over $20.
2) As units, it will decrease. A-lamp shipments for all technologies are forecast to have a CAGR of -11% from 2011 through 2020.
Regarding the reduction in the units, Smallwood further explained that “The long life of LED lamps (25,000 hours vs. 1,000 hours for incandescent) will create a “socket saturation” effect, where each LED installation will effectively decrease the replacement lamp market by one unit. While regional differences due to light preferences and consumer purchasing power will slow down the adoption of LEDs, it is predicted that this overall shrinking pattern will continue through 2020.”