New paradigm or twilight zone?

Economic growth remained strong through the third quarter of 1997, and early signs pointed to a good fourth quarter as well.

01/01/1998


Economic growth remained strong through the third quarter of 1997, and early signs pointed to a good fourth quarter as well. So why have leadtimes been so well behaved? Economists talk of a new paradigm in which the bar is being raised for the long-term growth potential for the economy. Any pressure now felt on leadtimes should lessen in 1998. Watch for continued, albeit minor, declines in leads during the coming year.

LEADTIMES

Dec.1997 Change % 1996 1997 1998

Gears 4.2 -7.6 -1.9 -5.6

Pumps 4.2 -5 -5.4 -1.9

Special fasteners 6.2 -4.7 -3.4 0

Valves 3.2 -0.4 -7 -2.7

Hydraulic cylinders 5.8 -16.5 24.8 -0.5

Historical data: Purchasing Magazine. Forecasts: Cahners Economics





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