New paradigm or twilight zone?
Economic growth remained strong through the third quarter of 1997, and early signs pointed to a good fourth quarter as well.
Economic growth remained strong through the third quarter of 1997, and early signs pointed to a good fourth quarter as well. So why have leadtimes been so well behaved? Economists talk of a new paradigm in which the bar is being raised for the long-term growth potential for the economy. Any pressure now felt on leadtimes should lessen in 1998. Watch for continued, albeit minor, declines in leads during the coming year.
Dec.1997 Change % 1996 1997 1998
Gears 4.2 -7.6 -1.9 -5.6
Pumps 4.2 -5 -5.4 -1.9
Special fasteners 6.2 -4.7 -3.4 0
Valves 3.2 -0.4 -7 -2.7
Hydraulic cylinders 5.8 -16.5 24.8 -0.5
Historical data: Purchasing Magazine. Forecasts: Cahners Economics
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